New figures from the World Trade Organization (WTO) have forecast a slight increase in global trade this year, but warned that the impact of higher tariffs over time is likely to pose a major risk for 2026.
The body's latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report estimated that total trade volumes are set to increase by 0.9 percent in 2025. This is an improvement over the 0.2 percent decline forecast in its previous study, but still significantly less than the prediction of 2.7 percent growth before US tariffs were announced.
It stated that a surge in import activity was the main driver of the higher-than-expected figures, as businesses sought to ship products to the US before the start of tariffs. However, with many levies now beginning to be implemented, the full impact of the duties remains to be seen.
Director-general of the WTO Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that global trade has shown resilience in the face of a range of persistent shocks, but warned of challenging times ahead.
She stated: "The shadow of tariff uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on business confidence, investment and supply chains. Uncertainty remains one of the most disruptive forces in the global trading environment.
"Nevertheless, it is important that a broader cycle of tit-for-tat retaliation that could be very damaging to global trade has so far been avoided."
The report found that Asian countries are set to be the largest drivers of goods trade this year, while North America is likely to weigh negatively on global growth for 2025 and 2026. It estimated that imports to the region will fall by 8.3 percent this year, while exports from North America will drop by 4.2 percent.