US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are preparing to meet in Washington this week, with the future of the fragile trade truce between the world's two largest economies expected to be a key focus.
The meeting will be the second face-to-face talks between Mr Trump and Mr Xi this year, following their summit in Beijing in May. While that meeting focused on building greater "strategic stability", it delivered few concrete outcomes and significant disagreements remain over trade, export controls and wider geopolitical issues.
Attention is now turning to what happens when the current US-China trade truce expires in November. The agreement, reached last year following a summit in South Korea, included a pause on tariffs alongside commitments from Beijing to loosen restrictions on exports of rare earths. China is now seeking a longer-term commitment that would remove the threat of tariffs, but the US appears reluctant to give up a measure it considers an important source of leverage.
Rare earth supplies are likely to remain closely connected to those negotiations. Bonnie Glaser, managing director at the German Marshall Fund, said to the Guardian that the US sees its leverage as a way of ensuring American companies continue receiving the rare earths and magnets they require.
China, however, may have less incentive to make major concessions than Washington would like. Despite the trade dispute, Chinese exports have continued to grow and the country is on course to record a $1 trillion trade surplus for the second consecutive year.
AI and geopolitical issues including Taiwan, Iran and Ukraine are also expected to feature in discussions. However, for international traders, the more immediate question will be whether the summit provides greater certainty over tariffs and critical mineral supplies beyond November.
With tariffs and export controls increasingly being used as negotiating tools by both sides, even an extension of the existing truce could prove significant for businesses navigating US-China trade. The outcome may therefore be less about achieving a comprehensive trade settlement and more about whether Washington and Beijing can prevent another round of escalation.