Global merchandise trade continued to expand in the first quarter of 2026 despite growing geopolitical tensions, according to new data released by the World Trade Organization (WTO) and UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
Seasonally adjusted merchandise trade volumes increased 1.9 percent compared with the previous quarter and were 3.2 percent higher than a year earlier, demonstrating resilience even as conflict in the Middle East disrupted shipping routes and increased pressure on global supply chains.
The WTO attributes much of this resilience to strong demand for AI-related electronic products. Trade in electronic integrated circuits and related technology components helped offset weaker performance in sectors affected by higher energy costs and transport disruptions caused by the conflict.
However, the organization cautioned that this resilience may prove temporary if geopolitical tensions continue. Elevated energy prices could weigh on trade growth during the remainder of the year by increasing production, transport and logistics costs, while ongoing disruption to travel and shipping could also affect services trade.
The latest figures align with the WTO's broader outlook for 2026, which notes that global trade is entering a more uneven period. While investment linked to AI is creating new sources of demand, geopolitical risks remain a significant downside factor for international commerce.
The WTO said prospects could improve if tensions in the Middle East ease and investment in AI-related products continues. Until then, businesses are likely to face a trading environment where technology-driven growth is increasingly balanced against geopolitical and economic risk.