As AI rapidly transforms industries worldwide, it's also set to reshape the way businesses trade. According to recent findings from a World Trade Organization report, AI can boost import and explore values by nearly 40 percent by 2040, with global GDP expected to grow by 12 to 13 percent.
The report claims that AI can help reduce trade costs, streamline logistics, automate paperwork and improve supply chain intelligence. In turn, trade becomes a vehicle to make AI more inclusive by enabling economies to import AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors, electronic components and specialized hardware.
"AI has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remains highly uneven," WTO director-general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said in her foreword to the report.
AI and trade: a two-way relationship
The report highlighted that AI and trade are mutually reinforcing. Trade enables the spread of AI technologies by providing access to hardware, data and expertise, while AI enhances trade efficiency by reducing costs and optimizing logistics.
In 2023, trade in AI-enabling goods, such as semiconductors, specialized computing hardware and optical components, reached $2.3 trillion globally. The WTO predicts that, under the right conditions, global trade could rise by 34 to 37 percent and world GDP by 12 to 14 percent by 2040.
However, these benefits are far from guaranteed. They depend on policy choices, infrastructure investment and digital inclusion, especially for developing economies.
Policy challenges: from tariffs to trust
The WTO found that policy and regulation are now central to AI's trade impact. Some key takeaways include:
- Trade barriers are rising: Limits on the volume of AI-relevant goods that can be imported or exported have grown from around 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 by 2024. In some low-income economies, tariffs on AI-related goods reach up to 45 percent.
- Data and services matter: Many of AI's most transformative effects will come through digitally delivered services, but ensuring cross-border data flows remains a critical challenge.
- Complementary policies are essential: Investment in broadband, cloud infrastructure, renewable energy and digital literacy must accompany trade liberalization to prevent uneven outcomes.
- AI regulation must be interoperable: Fragmented national approaches such as conflicting data localization rules, for example, could increase trade costs and slow innovation.
The WTO also introduces an AI Trade Policy Openness Index (AI-TPOI), revealing that while many high-income economies are open to AI trade and data flows, several middle-income economies maintain relatively restrictive regimes. These policy gaps could determine who benefits from AI-driven trade and who gets excluded.
Through this change, the report explains the importance of inclusion. AI offers great potential to enhance productivity and efficiency, these benefits won't be evenly distributed if policies don't address AI-related labour market disruptions, bridge the digital divide, foster fairer competition and mitigate environmental effects.
What this means for businesses
For trading professionals, these shifts represent both challenges and opportunities. To stay competitive, businesses must adapt quickly by focusing on these key areas:
- Digital readiness is trade readiness: The ability to process, analyze and exchange data across borders is now a trade advantage. AI-driven compliance tools and automated customs systems are becoming essential infrastructure.
- Regulatory change is accelerating: As countries experiment with AI and data governance, trade compliance environments will evolve rapidly. Flexible, configurable software will be key to staying compliant.
- Inclusion creates opportunity: Businesses that help bridge digital divides by providing interoperable systems, training or access to digital trade tools will find new markets as economies integrate AI.
At MIC, we've actively embedded AI and machine learning into our next-generation trade management solutions to simplify and enhance complex customs processes. These include:
- Customs tariff classification: AI models trained on trade-specific data can automate complex classification tasks, reducing errors and saving time.
- AI assistants and copilots: These tools support users during customs declarations by offering suggestions and step-by-step guidance.
- Intelligent trade document processing (IDP): AI-powered IDP extracts and structures data from unstructured sources such as PDFs, images and spreadsheets for a cost-effective, automated workflow.
With these AI-driven capabilities, trade professionals can stay ahead of evolving compliance and operational demands. Companies operating at the intersection of AI and trade, like those using MIC's digital trade and customs solutions, will play a crucial role in turning the WTO's vision into reality: a world where AI enhances global trade for the benefit of all.
