Donald Trump's victory in last week's US presidential election, which will see him return to the White House for a second term in January, has sent shockwaves through the global trade sector. Mr Trump had made an aggressive, protectionist trade policy a key part of his campaign, pledging a new round of tariffs and restrictions with the aim of returning manufacturing to the US and shoring up American jobs at the expense of free international trade.

So how will businesses and trading partners react to the prospect of a very different global trading environment in 2025? Here are some of the key policy moves to expect and what they may mean for international trading relations.

Importers look to stock up ahead of tariffs

A central part of the Trump administration's agenda is likely to be an expansive range of new tariffs that will hit allies and competitors alike.  The incoming president has proposed blanket duties of at least ten percent - and possibly as high as 20 percent - on all imports to the US, regardless of product category or country of origin. While many economists have predicted the costs of these will end up being passed on to American consumers, such a move would likely prove disruptive to many firms.

As such, the next few months before the new president takes office are set to see a flurry of activity as US businesses seek to stockpile as many goods and raw materials as they can from overseas before tariffs hit. In turn, this is likely to put further pressure on key logistics and shipping services, leading to higher freight rates.

While Mr Trump has been clear he views tariffs as a revenue generator for the US Treasury, in the longer term, the hope of the administration may be that more firms shift manufacturing to the US in order to circumvent duties. However, this would require significant commitment and capital investment.

Relations with China set for a downturn?

While all trade partners are likely to be hit by tariffs, it is the relationship with China that may be set for the biggest upheaval. Mr Trump has suggested tariffs of up to 100 percent could be imposed on goods coming in from the country - four times higher than the 25 percent levies introduced under the last administration.

This could be particularly impactful to imports such as electronics. For example, the Consumer Technology Association has calculated that even a 60 percent flat tariff would increase the price of laptops and tablets by 46 per cent, video game consoles by 40 per cent and smartphones by 26 per cent. It also suggested such a move would drive production to other countries, but not the US.

There is also the question of how China would respond. Tit-for-tat duties could lead to another full-scale trade war between the world's two largest economies. However, with China already struggling with a slowing economy and weak domestic demand, it may find it difficult to withstand the effects of such a move. Therefore, it may be forced to turn to other measures, such as increasing stimulus incentives.

The impact on the USMCA

Another area that could be changed by the new administration is the USMCA free trade agreement (FTA) with Canada and Mexico. Although this was negotiated by the first Trump administration in 2017, it is up for review in 2026 and Mr Trump has vowed to invoke this, stating in a pre-election interview: “I want to make it a much better deal. I want to take advantage, now, of the car industry.”

The USMCA has helped the US greatly increase its trade with its neighbors - with this year marking the first time in 20 years that the US has imported more from Mexico than China.

Campaign rhetoric has suggested that tariffs of up to 200 percent could be imposed on imports of vehicles from Mexico, with the Trump administration using trade policy as a lever to pressure Mexico into taking action on other areas such as immigration and drug gangs.

While there is still a great deal of uncertainty as to how many of Mr Trump's campaign pledges will become policy, it is clear that global trade is set for a turbulent time ahead. As such, it will be important for importers and exporters to have the right tools to fully understand the implications of measures such as tariffs and identify ways to reduce their financial burden, which may include retooling supply chains to take advantage of FTAs.